RPF

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The Shadow King: Reza Pahlavi and the Question of Iran's Future

March 9, 2026RPF News Staff

The exiled crown prince has spent four decades waiting for a revolution that may never come. But as Tehran's grip tightens and a new generation of Iranians looks outward, Pahlavi's quiet campaign for a secular, democratic Iran has found a larger audience than ever before.

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Secret Back-Channel Talks Between Washington and Tehran Have Resumed Over Nuclear Deal

March 6, 2026RPF News Staff

Senior American and Iranian diplomats have been meeting in Oman since January, according to four people familiar with the discussions, in what amounts to the most substantive bilateral engagement since the collapse of the JCPOA.

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The World Leaders Most Likely to Lose Power in 2026

February 12, 2026RPF News Staff

From scheduled elections to mounting internal pressures, several heads of state face credible threats to their hold on power this year. RPF News maps the prediction market consensus on which leaders are most vulnerable — and who might replace them.

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Inside the Opposition Movement That Threatens Maduro's Grip on Venezuela

February 10, 2026RPF News Staff

A fractured but resilient opposition coalition has regrouped after the disputed 2024 election, building parallel governance structures in several states. RPF News reports from Caracas on the movement's strategy, its internal divisions, and the prediction market odds on a transition of power.

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The Nobel Peace Prize Frontrunners and What the Betting Markets Say

February 8, 2026RPF News Staff

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce its 2026 laureate in October, but prediction markets are already pricing in favorites. RPF News examines the leading candidates — from imprisoned dissidents to international mediators — and the geopolitical signals each selection would send.